Does a C-or-better EPC sell for more in M9 5 (Manchester)?
Too few comparable sales here for a reliable like-for-like figure. In postcode sector M9 5 (Manchester), comparing like with like — same floor area, property type, build period and year of sale — there are too few comparable sales in each group for a reliable figure; for district M9 as a whole the like-for-like difference is +2.8% (95% range +0.6% to +5.1%). The raw gap is bigger: C+ homes sold for 54% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £1,753 vs £1,136, 170 sales 2015–2026), mostly because they are different homes. Across England and Wales the like-for-like figure is +1.2%. Data: HM Land Registry Price Paid to 30 September 2026 matched to the EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 72 m² against 77 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 1996–2002 for C+ and 1900–1929 for D–G; 33% of C+ and 10% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
This sector has fewer than 150 matched sales, fewer than 30 in one group, or an estimate too imprecise or implausibly large to trust, so the like-for-like comparison is not shown; the district figure is above.
Sold prices by EPC band in M9 5
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| B | 8 | too few |
| C | 71 | £1,713 |
| D | 65 | £1,193 |
| E | 22 | £1,116 |
| F | 3 | too few |
| G | 1 | too few |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
C or better vs D–G, by property type
| Type | C+ sales | C+ £/m² | D–G sales | D–G £/m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semi-detached | 26 | £2,275 | 9 | — |
| Terraced | 39 | £1,481 | 82 | £1,122 |
| Flat / maisonette | 14 | £1,593 | 0 | — |
Compared with the wider area
| Area | Sales | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector M9 5 | 170 | too few | — |
| District M9 | 3,813 | +2.8% | +0.6% to +5.1% |
| England and Wales | 1,000,000 (sample) | +1.2% | +0.9% to +1.5% |
Average gas use in M9 5 (2024): meters vs certificates
A rough comparison: the certificate figure is an upper-bound estimate (primary energy including lighting, converted with one factor), so treat the share as an order of magnitude.
| Postcodes with published gas data (5+ meters) | 101 (1,515 meters) |
|---|---|
| Median gas use per meter (median of postcodes) | 8,335 kWh |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC | 1,403 |
| Energy implied by their certificates (median) | 12,804 kWh |
| Metered gas as a share of the certificate figure (median of 96 postcodes) | 65% (middle half 54%–75%) |
Certificates by band imply: B 7,885 kWh (105 homes) · C 11,692 kWh (886 homes) · D 17,634 kWh (349 homes) · E 27,356 kWh (61 homes). Across England and Wales, real use is much closer to the certificate for A–C homes than for D–G homes, so the saving an upgrade promises is usually smaller than the certificate suggests.
Certificate energy = primary energy per m² × floor area ÷ 1.13, for homes whose latest certificate shows mains gas heating; it also covers lighting and other uses, so it is an upper bound for gas. DESNZ gas is weather-corrected and covers all meters in the postcode, with or without a certificate.
Can the local grid take heat pumps in M9 5?
About 1,290 of the 1,403 gas-heated homes with an energy certificate in M9 5 (92%) could switch to a heat pump before their local substations run out of spare capacity, on SP Electricity North West's figures. 2 of the 13 local substations would fill up before every gas-heated home they supply could switch.
| Local (street) substations serving homes in the sector | 13 |
|---|---|
| Already at or over capacity | 0 (0%) |
| Their combined spare capacity (demand headroom) | ≈ 6,590 kVA |
| Heat pumps that spare capacity could take, at 1.7 kW each | ≈ 3,880 |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC on these substations | 1,403 |
| Of them, could switch within the spare capacity | ≈ 1,290 (92%) |
| …if each heat pump adds 3 kW (a cold snap) | ≈ 1,190 (85%) |
How: each substation's spare capacity (transformer demand headroom in kVA, from estimated maximum demand) is divided by 1.7 kW, the extra winter peak one heat pump adds once many are spread over a street; a substation can take as many heat pumps as that allows, shared among the gas-heated homes on all its postcodes whose nearest SP Electricity North West substation it is (supply areas are not published). Some substations also serve neighbouring sectors, so their whole capacity is counted here and there. Spare capacity is SP Electricity North West's figure as published on 24 March 2026; network operators must still be told about each heat pump, and a full substation means reinforcement (usually a delay), not a refusal. Homes without an energy certificate are not counted. All areas and the method.
170 of 182 house and flat sales in the sector since 2015 (93%) were matched to a certificate.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.