Does a C-or-better EPC sell for more in M4 5 (Manchester)?
No premium here: C+ homes sold for slightly less. In postcode sector M4 5 (Manchester), comparing like with like — same floor area, property type, build period and year of sale — homes rated C or better sold for 4.9% less (95% range −9.4% to −0.1%). The raw gap is different: C+ homes sold for 0% less per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,435 vs £3,451, 614 sales 2015–2026), mostly because they are different homes. Across England and Wales the like-for-like figure is +1.2%. Data: HM Land Registry Price Paid to 30 September 2026 matched to the EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 66 m² against 84 m² for D–G; both groups are most often built in 2012 or later.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | 0% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −18.5% | −25.5% to −10.9% |
| Same floor area | −3.0% | −8.5% to +2.9% |
| + same property type | −2.3% | −7.9% to +3.6% |
| + same build period | −2.3% | −7.3% to +2.9% |
| + same year of sale | −4.9% | −9.4% to −0.1% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Sold prices by EPC band in M4 5
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| B | 190 | £4,527 |
| C | 302 | £3,005 |
| D | 68 | £3,031 |
| E | 42 | £4,148 |
| F | 9 | too few |
| G | 3 | too few |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
C or better vs D–G, by property type
| Type | C+ sales | C+ £/m² | D–G sales | D–G £/m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terraced | 11 | £3,007 | 0 | — |
| Flat / maisonette | 481 | £3,443 | 122 | £3,451 |
Compared with the wider area
| Area | Sales | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector M4 5 | 614 | −4.9% | −9.4% to −0.1% |
| District M4 | 4,396 | −1.8% | −3.5% to −0.2% |
| England and Wales | 1,000,000 (sample) | +1.2% | +0.9% to +1.5% |
Average gas use in M4 5 (2024): meters vs certificates
A rough comparison: the certificate figure is an upper-bound estimate (primary energy including lighting, converted with one factor), so treat the share as an order of magnitude.
| Postcodes with published gas data (5+ meters) | 15 (246 meters) |
|---|---|
| Median gas use per meter (median of postcodes) | 7,268 kWh |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC | 228 |
| Energy implied by their certificates (median) | 10,966 kWh |
| Metered gas as a share of the certificate figure (median of 13 postcodes) | 53% (middle half 39%–71%) |
Certificates by band imply: B 7,743 kWh (50 homes) · C 10,963 kWh (123 homes) · D 16,551 kWh (39 homes) · E 26,912 kWh (15 homes). Across England and Wales, real use is much closer to the certificate for A–C homes than for D–G homes, so the saving an upgrade promises is usually smaller than the certificate suggests.
Certificate energy = primary energy per m² × floor area ÷ 1.13, for homes whose latest certificate shows mains gas heating; it also covers lighting and other uses, so it is an upper bound for gas. DESNZ gas is weather-corrected and covers all meters in the postcode, with or without a certificate.
Can the local grid take heat pumps in M4 5?
Yes, on SP Electricity North West's figures: the local substations serving M4 5 have enough spare capacity for all 227 gas-heated homes with an energy certificate here to switch to a heat pump. None of the 24 local substations would fill up first.
| Local (street) substations serving homes in the sector | 24 |
|---|---|
| Already at or over capacity | 1 (4%) |
| Their combined spare capacity (demand headroom) | ≈ 13,950 kVA |
| Heat pumps that spare capacity could take, at 1.7 kW each | ≈ 8,210 |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC on these substations | 227 |
| Of them, could switch within the spare capacity | ≈ 227 (100%) |
| …if each heat pump adds 3 kW (a cold snap) | ≈ 220 (97%) |
How: each substation's spare capacity (transformer demand headroom in kVA, from estimated maximum demand) is divided by 1.7 kW, the extra winter peak one heat pump adds once many are spread over a street; a substation can take as many heat pumps as that allows, shared among the gas-heated homes on all its postcodes whose nearest SP Electricity North West substation it is (supply areas are not published). Some substations also serve neighbouring sectors, so their whole capacity is counted here and there. Spare capacity is SP Electricity North West's figure as published on 24 March 2026; network operators must still be told about each heat pump, and a full substation means reinforcement (usually a delay), not a refusal. Homes without an energy certificate are not counted. All areas and the method.
614 of 861 house and flat sales in the sector since 2015 (71%) were matched to a certificate.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.