Does a C-or-better EPC sell for more in M31 4 (Trafford)?
No measurable EPC premium here. In postcode sector M31 4 (Trafford), comparing like with like — same floor area, property type, build period and year of sale — the difference is +1.7% (95% range −1.0% to +4.4%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. The raw gap is bigger: C+ homes sold for 34% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £2,750 vs £2,046, 1,087 sales 2015–2026), mostly because they are different homes. Across England and Wales the like-for-like figure is +1.2%. Data: HM Land Registry Price Paid to 30 September 2026 matched to the EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 82 m² against 81 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1950–1966 for D–G; 70% of C+ and 55% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +34% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +29.1% | +23.5% to +34.9% |
| Same floor area | +27.5% | +22.5% to +32.7% |
| + same property type | +18.5% | +14.3% to +22.9% |
| + same build period | +5.5% | +0.8% to +10.4% |
| + same year of sale | +1.7% | −1.0% to +4.4% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Sold prices by EPC band in M31 4
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 2 | too few |
| B | 322 | £3,133 |
| C | 289 | £2,174 |
| D | 372 | £2,096 |
| E | 81 | £1,875 |
| F | 14 | £1,595 |
| G | 7 | too few |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
C or better vs D–G, by property type
| Type | C+ sales | C+ £/m² | D–G sales | D–G £/m² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 129 | £3,242 | 17 | £2,292 |
| Semi-detached | 301 | £2,887 | 244 | £2,395 |
| Terraced | 168 | £2,155 | 210 | £1,706 |
| Flat / maisonette | 15 | £1,527 | 3 | — |
Compared with the wider area
| Area | Sales | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector M31 4 | 1,087 | +1.7% | −1.0% to +4.4% |
| District M31 | 1,087 | +1.7% | −1.0% to +4.4% |
| England and Wales | 1,000,000 (sample) | +1.2% | +0.9% to +1.5% |
Average gas use in M31 4 (2024): meters vs certificates
A rough comparison: the certificate figure is an upper-bound estimate (primary energy including lighting, converted with one factor), so treat the share as an order of magnitude.
| Postcodes with published gas data (5+ meters) | 217 (3,935 meters) |
|---|---|
| Median gas use per meter (median of postcodes) | 9,056 kWh |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC | 3,350 |
| Energy implied by their certificates (median) | 12,514 kWh |
| Metered gas as a share of the certificate figure (median of 216 postcodes) | 65% (middle half 56%–76%) |
Certificates by band imply: A 3,385 kWh (15 homes) · B 6,117 kWh (786 homes) · C 11,804 kWh (1,215 homes) · D 17,405 kWh (1,206 homes) · E 26,681 kWh (111 homes) · F 32,219 kWh (15 homes). Across England and Wales, real use is much closer to the certificate for A–C homes than for D–G homes, so the saving an upgrade promises is usually smaller than the certificate suggests.
Certificate energy = primary energy per m² × floor area ÷ 1.13, for homes whose latest certificate shows mains gas heating; it also covers lighting and other uses, so it is an upper bound for gas. DESNZ gas is weather-corrected and covers all meters in the postcode, with or without a certificate.
Can the local grid take heat pumps in M31 4?
About 2,510 of the 3,319 gas-heated homes with an energy certificate in M31 4 (76%) could switch to a heat pump before their local substations run out of spare capacity, on SP Electricity North West's figures. 8 of the 27 local substations would fill up before every gas-heated home they supply could switch; 1 is already at or over capacity.
| Local (street) substations serving homes in the sector | 27 |
|---|---|
| Already at or over capacity | 1 (4%) |
| Their combined spare capacity (demand headroom) | ≈ 7,990 kVA |
| Heat pumps that spare capacity could take, at 1.7 kW each | ≈ 4,700 |
| Gas-heated homes with an EPC on these substations | 3,319 (99% of the sector's) |
| Of them, could switch within the spare capacity | ≈ 2,510 (76%) |
| …if each heat pump adds 3 kW (a cold snap) | ≈ 1,950 (59%) |
How: each substation's spare capacity (transformer demand headroom in kVA, from estimated maximum demand) is divided by 1.7 kW, the extra winter peak one heat pump adds once many are spread over a street; a substation can take as many heat pumps as that allows, shared among the gas-heated homes on all its postcodes whose nearest SP Electricity North West substation it is (supply areas are not published). Some substations also serve neighbouring sectors, so their whole capacity is counted here and there. Spare capacity is SP Electricity North West's figure as published on 24 March 2026; network operators must still be told about each heat pump, and a full substation means reinforcement (usually a delay), not a refusal. Homes without an energy certificate are not counted. All areas and the method.
1,087 of 1,138 house and flat sales in the sector since 2015 (96%) were matched to a certificate.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.