EPC rating and sold prices in UB4 (Hillingdon)
In postcode district UB4 (Hillingdon), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 5% less per square metre than D–G homes (median £5,000 vs £5,250, 2,962 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is −0.5% (95% range −2.1% to +1.0%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 0 of 3 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 66 m² against 79 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 1950–1966 for C+ and 1930–1949 for D–G; 31% of C+ and 58% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | −5% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −12.3% | −14.9% to −9.7% |
| Same floor area | −5.8% | −7.6% to −4.0% |
| + same property type | +1.1% | −0.5% to +2.8% |
| + same build period | +3.3% | +1.5% to +5.1% |
| + same year of sale | −0.5% | −2.1% to +1.0% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in UB4
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UB4 0 | 647 | −1% | +1.5% | −2.4% to +5.7% |
| UB4 8 | 1,337 | −7% | +0.4% | −2.0% to +3.0% |
| UB4 9 | 978 | −3% | −1.9% | −4.0% to +0.2% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in UB4
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| B | 100 | £4,442 |
| C | 843 | £5,083 |
| D | 1,554 | £5,260 |
| E | 399 | £5,214 |
| F | 46 | £5,136 |
| G | 20 | £5,141 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.