EPC rating and sold prices in SM4 (Merton)
In postcode district SM4 (Merton), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 0% less per square metre than D–G homes (median £5,531 vs £5,547, 4,018 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is −0.7% (95% range −1.9% to +0.6%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 0 of 3 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 70 m² against 80 m² for D–G; both groups are most often built in 1930–1949; 8% of C+ and 21% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | 0% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −11.1% | −13.1% to −9.1% |
| Same floor area | −3.2% | −4.6% to −1.9% |
| + same property type | +1.9% | +0.6% to +3.2% |
| + same build period | +3.5% | +2.1% to +4.9% |
| + same year of sale | −0.7% | −1.9% to +0.6% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in SM4
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SM4 4 | 1,726 | −1% | +1.1% | −0.7% to +2.8% |
| SM4 5 | 963 | +3% | +1.0% | −1.4% to +3.6% |
| SM4 6 | 1,329 | +2% | +0.2% | −1.6% to +2.1% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in SM4
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| B | 138 | £5,125 |
| C | 1,065 | £5,556 |
| D | 2,062 | £5,600 |
| E | 647 | £5,424 |
| F | 75 | £5,390 |
| G | 31 | £5,091 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.