EPC rating and sold prices in SA15 (Carmarthenshire)
In postcode district SA15 (Carmarthenshire), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 48% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £1,833 vs £1,240, 5,665 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — homes rated C or better sold for 2.3% more (95% range +0.1% to +4.6%). 1 of 5 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 86 m² against 94 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1900–1929 for D–G; 60% of C+ and 45% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +48% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +30.0% | +26.8% to +33.4% |
| Same floor area | +40.3% | +37.6% to +43.1% |
| + same property type | +30.0% | +27.6% to +32.5% |
| + same build period | +7.0% | +4.3% to +9.9% |
| + same year of sale | +2.3% | +0.1% to +4.6% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in SA15
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA15 1 | 1,178 | +26% | +6.5% ▲ | +2.4% to +10.7% |
| SA15 2 | 1,346 | +88% | +3.1% | −1.3% to +7.8% |
| SA15 3 | 1,094 | +9% | −2.3% | −8.0% to +3.8% |
| SA15 4 | 1,091 | +29% | +3.6% | −2.2% to +9.6% |
| SA15 5 | 956 | +13% | +2.2% | −2.0% to +6.7% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in SA15
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 5 | too few |
| B | 630 | £1,974 |
| C | 1,133 | £1,704 |
| D | 2,375 | £1,296 |
| E | 1,163 | £1,163 |
| F | 292 | £1,109 |
| G | 67 | £1,000 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.