EPC rating and sold prices in PO21 (Arun)
In postcode district PO21 (Arun), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 1% less per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,235 vs £3,256, 8,129 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is +0.6% (95% range −0.7% to +1.8%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 1 of 5 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 80 m² against 85 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1967–1975 for D–G; 42% of C+ and 63% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | −1% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −8.9% | −11.0% to −6.8% |
| Same floor area | −2.0% | −3.3% to −0.7% |
| + same property type | +5.2% | +4.1% to +6.4% |
| + same build period | +2.9% | +1.5% to +4.3% |
| + same year of sale | +0.6% | −0.7% to +1.8% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in PO21
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PO21 1 | 1,015 | +2% | +4.4% ▲ | +0.4% to +8.5% |
| PO21 2 | 1,713 | +3% | +2.3% | −0.2% to +4.7% |
| PO21 3 | 1,658 | +3% | +2.2% | 0.0% to +4.5% |
| PO21 4 | 1,665 | +4% | +2.4% | −0.1% to +5.0% |
| PO21 5 | 2,078 | +1% | +0.3% | −1.9% to +2.6% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in PO21
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 24 | £4,150 |
| B | 1,155 | £3,295 |
| C | 2,243 | £3,176 |
| D | 3,491 | £3,341 |
| E | 1,015 | £3,051 |
| F | 165 | £2,703 |
| G | 36 | £2,846 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.