EPC rating and sold prices in NP44 (Torfaen)
In postcode district NP44 (Torfaen), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 28% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £2,376 vs £1,855, 7,583 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is +1.2% (95% range 0.0% to +2.4%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 3 of 8 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 89 m² against 85 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1950–1966 for D–G; 61% of C+ and 44% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +28% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +29.8% | +27.3% to +32.4% |
| Same floor area | +23.5% | +21.7% to +25.3% |
| + same property type | +16.1% | +14.6% to +17.6% |
| + same build period | +6.8% | +5.1% to +8.4% |
| + same year of sale | +1.2% | 0.0% to +2.4% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in NP44
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NP44 1 | 1,759 | +47% | +4.2% ▲ | +1.0% to +7.5% |
| NP44 2 | 833 | +9% | +2.8% | −0.1% to +5.8% |
| NP44 3 | 1,700 | +40% | −1.4% | −4.4% to +1.6% |
| NP44 4 | 694 | +15% | +4.1% ▲ | +0.9% to +7.5% |
| NP44 5 | 572 | −3% | −4.1% ▼ | −7.1% to −0.9% |
| NP44 6 | 713 | +8% | +1.9% | −1.6% to +5.4% |
| NP44 7 | 740 | +18% | 0.0% | −3.3% to +3.3% |
| NP44 8 | 572 | +7% | +0.1% | −2.9% to +3.2% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in NP44
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 20 | £3,318 |
| B | 1,777 | £2,622 |
| C | 2,223 | £2,055 |
| D | 2,854 | £1,892 |
| E | 610 | £1,690 |
| F | 77 | £1,907 |
| G | 22 | £1,807 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.