EPC rating and sold prices in NP16 (Monmouthshire)
In postcode district NP16 (Monmouthshire), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 9% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,198 vs £2,929, 4,072 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is −1.0% (95% range −2.3% to +0.4%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 0 of 3 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 94 m² against 95 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1950–1966 for D–G; 63% of C+ and 74% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +9% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +3.4% | +0.6% to +6.2% |
| Same floor area | +7.3% | +5.5% to +9.1% |
| + same property type | +9.1% | +7.4% to +10.8% |
| + same build period | +4.6% | +2.6% to +6.6% |
| + same year of sale | −1.0% | −2.3% to +0.4% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in NP16
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NP16 5 | 2,276 | +20% | +0.2% | −1.4% to +1.8% |
| NP16 6 | 846 | −4% | −0.8% | −4.1% to +2.6% |
| NP16 7 | 950 | +2% | +1.0% | −2.6% to +4.7% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in NP16
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 6 | too few |
| B | 703 | £3,411 |
| C | 1,241 | £3,055 |
| D | 1,429 | £2,931 |
| E | 497 | £2,874 |
| F | 151 | £2,982 |
| G | 45 | £3,457 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.