EPC rating and sold prices in M33 (Trafford)
In postcode district M33 (Trafford), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 5% less per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,307 vs £3,469, 10,048 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is −0.9% (95% range −1.9% to +0.1%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 0 of 6 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 82 m² against 92 m² for D–G; both groups are most often built in 1930–1949; 43% of C+ and 65% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | −5% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −17.4% | −19.2% to −15.5% |
| Same floor area | −4.6% | −5.9% to −3.4% |
| + same property type | +3.5% | +2.2% to +4.8% |
| + same build period | +5.3% | +3.9% to +6.7% |
| + same year of sale | −0.9% | −1.9% to +0.1% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in M33
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M33 2 | 2,154 | −4% | −0.3% | −2.9% to +2.3% |
| M33 3 | 2,164 | −7% | −1.6% | −3.8% to +0.7% |
| M33 4 | 1,727 | 0% | −1.5% | −3.6% to +0.6% |
| M33 5 | 1,649 | −5% | −1.8% | −3.9% to +0.3% |
| M33 6 | 1,165 | −3% | +1.1% | −1.7% to +4.0% |
| M33 7 | 1,189 | −12% | +2.2% | −0.3% to +4.7% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in M33
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 6 | too few |
| B | 416 | £3,078 |
| C | 2,760 | £3,360 |
| D | 4,913 | £3,554 |
| E | 1,680 | £3,296 |
| F | 222 | £3,254 |
| G | 51 | £3,103 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.