EPC rating and sold prices in LU3 (Luton)
In postcode district LU3 (Luton), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 5% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,485 vs £3,333, 6,838 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is +0.6% (95% range −0.5% to +1.6%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 0 of 4 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 77 m² against 82 m² for D–G; both groups are most often built in 1950–1966; 50% of C+ and 66% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +5% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | −2.8% | −4.8% to −0.8% |
| Same floor area | +2.2% | +0.8% to +3.5% |
| + same property type | +8.5% | +7.3% to +9.8% |
| + same build period | +6.5% | +5.2% to +7.8% |
| + same year of sale | +0.6% | −0.5% to +1.6% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in LU3
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LU3 1 | 1,660 | +5% | +3.3% | 0.0% to +6.6% |
| LU3 2 | 2,058 | +6% | +0.6% | −1.3% to +2.5% |
| LU3 3 | 2,152 | +2% | +0.3% | −1.3% to +2.0% |
| LU3 4 | 968 | +1% | −0.3% | −2.2% to +1.7% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in LU3
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 1 | too few |
| B | 240 | £3,563 |
| C | 1,802 | £3,473 |
| D | 3,425 | £3,427 |
| E | 1,162 | £3,128 |
| F | 169 | £3,030 |
| G | 39 | £2,788 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.