EPC rating and sold prices in LU1 (Luton)
In postcode district LU1 (Luton), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 14% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,636 vs £3,198, 4,496 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — homes rated C or better sold for 1.9% less (95% range −3.4% to −0.3%). 1 of 4 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 80 m² against 81 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1900–1929 for D–G; 44% of C+ and 42% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +14% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +8.8% | +5.5% to +12.2% |
| Same floor area | +11.0% | +9.1% to +12.9% |
| + same property type | +11.8% | +10.0% to +13.6% |
| + same build period | +2.3% | +0.4% to +4.2% |
| + same year of sale | −1.9% | −3.4% to −0.3% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in LU1
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LU1 1 | 915 | +22% | +2.5% | −1.9% to +7.0% |
| LU1 2 | 102 | +30% | too few | — |
| LU1 3 | 1,161 | +6% | −3.8% ▼ | −6.4% to −1.1% |
| LU1 4 | 1,203 | +1% | −1.1% | −3.6% to +1.4% |
| LU1 5 | 1,115 | +4% | +1.7% | −0.6% to +4.0% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in LU1
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 10 | £3,678 |
| B | 623 | £3,914 |
| C | 1,007 | £3,391 |
| D | 1,935 | £3,333 |
| E | 777 | £2,908 |
| F | 117 | £2,818 |
| G | 27 | £2,544 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.