EPC rating and sold prices in CF31 (Bridgend)
In postcode district CF31 (Bridgend), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 16% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £2,289 vs £1,978, 7,936 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — homes rated C or better sold for 1.2% more (95% range +0.2% to +2.3%). 2 of 5 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 84 m² against 87 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1950–1966 for D–G; 73% of C+ and 76% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +16% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +11.7% | +9.7% to +13.7% |
| Same floor area | +15.2% | +13.8% to +16.6% |
| + same property type | +12.6% | +11.3% to +13.9% |
| + same build period | +8.5% | +6.9% to +10.1% |
| + same year of sale | +1.2% | +0.2% to +2.3% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in CF31
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF31 1 | 1,239 | +16% | +4.6% ▲ | +1.7% to +7.5% |
| CF31 2 | 2,167 | +5% | −1.2% | −2.6% to +0.2% |
| CF31 3 | 882 | +14% | +9.8% ▲ | +5.3% to +14.5% |
| CF31 4 | 2,600 | +27% | +1.5% | −0.8% to +3.7% |
| CF31 5 | 1,048 | +3% | −0.4% | −2.1% to +1.4% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in CF31
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 9 | too few |
| B | 1,001 | £2,370 |
| C | 2,597 | £2,250 |
| D | 3,449 | £2,045 |
| E | 763 | £1,780 |
| F | 101 | £1,686 |
| G | 16 | £1,333 |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.