EPC rating and sold prices in CF15 (Cardiff)
In postcode district CF15 (Cardiff), homes rated EPC C or better sold for 15% more per square metre than D–G homes (median £3,132 vs £2,722, 3,260 sales). Like for like — same size, type, build period and year — the difference is +0.2% (95% range −1.7% to +2.0%): the EPC band itself is not reflected in sale prices here. 1 of 3 sectors with enough sales show a difference distinguishable from zero. Data: HM Land Registry to 30 September 2026, EPC register.
From the raw gap to like-for-like
The homes are not alike: C+ homes here have a median floor area of 98 m² against 95 m² for D–G; the most common build period is 2012 onwards for C+ and 1967–1975 for D–G; 67% of C+ and 67% of D–G sales are detached or semi-detached houses.
| Comparing C+ with D–G homes… | Difference | 95% range |
|---|---|---|
| Raw gap per m² (medians) | +15% | — |
| Whole price, nothing held equal | +11.1% | +7.4% to +14.9% |
| Same floor area | +13.9% | +11.7% to +16.1% |
| + same property type | +14.1% | +12.2% to +16.1% |
| + same build period | +7.8% | +5.4% to +10.3% |
| + same year of sale | +0.2% | −1.7% to +2.0% |
The first row compares median prices per m²; the second compares whole prices; each later row adds one more thing that must be equal, ending with the like-for-like premium (regression of log price; build period from the certificate, 12 bands). The raw gap per m² and the whole-price gap differ because C+ and D–G homes differ in size.
Postcode sectors in CF15
| Sector | Sales | Raw gap | Like-for-like | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF15 7 | 897 | +14% | +2.8% | −0.5% to +6.2% |
| CF15 8 | 1,532 | +12% | −3.0% ▼ | −5.4% to −0.6% |
| CF15 9 | 831 | +9% | +1.2% | −1.2% to +3.7% |
▲ green: premium distinguishable from zero; ▼ red: discount; plain: no measurable difference. Small areas have fewer sales, so their 95% ranges are wider.
Sold prices by EPC band in CF15
| EPC band (last certificate before sale) | Sales | Median £ per m² |
|---|---|---|
| A | 3 | too few |
| B | 687 | £3,352 |
| C | 1,031 | £2,972 |
| D | 1,199 | £2,757 |
| E | 281 | £2,627 |
| F | 53 | £2,500 |
| G | 6 | too few |
A median is shown when a band has at least 10 sales.
How this is calculated
- Every standard sale (HM Land Registry Price Paid, category A) since January 2015 is matched to the latest energy certificate of the same address (postcode + house number or name + flat) lodged from 10 years before to 3 months after the sale; sales with no certificate or an ambiguous match are left out. Across England and Wales 92% of sales match.
- Price per m² uses the certificate's total floor area (15–1,000 m²).
- Like-for-like premium: regression of the log of price on “C or better”, log floor area, property type, the certificate's build period and the year of sale. The 95% range shows how precise the estimate is; when it includes zero, the data cannot tell the premium apart from none.
Caveats
- The band is the one on the certificate before the sale; certificates are a median 0.8 years old at the sale, but a quarter are over 4 years old and some homes were improved since.
- Condition, garden, parking, views and the exact position within the sector are not known; a premium could hide in them, or they could hide one.
- Individual sales and addresses are not shown.